Welcome
Hello there!
I hold a PhD in political economy from the University of Oxford, Pembroke College. My thesis looks at how the collusion between politicians and firms (an interaction I define as elite networks) affects the distribution of top incomes. I successfully defended the thesis in record time, after only two and a half years of study (from September 2016 to March 2019). During my time at Oxford I was a teaching assistant at the Oxford Q-step Center, teaching 1st year PhD course Causal Inference, and I held workshops in R. The thesis is currently being turned into a book, under review, titled "Elite Networks: The Political Economy of Inequality".
I am the co-founder and CEO of Oraclum Intelligence Systems Ltd, a UK-based data company that uses the power of social networks, big data, and machine learning to predict election outcomes, market movements, product demand, and consumer behaviour. My role is to run and oversee all our research projects, but also to conduct direct sales with clients, and deliver strategic decisions. The business experience perfectly complements an academic one, particularly when the two are interrelated as is the case with Oraclum. Our work includes doing survey experiments, data science modelling, and complex network and social network surveys which we have been conducting in over 15 countries (USA, UK, Western Europe, Eastern Europe, Southeast Asia), all done using social media. Our biggest success were the predictions of Brexit and Trump in 2016, and Biden in 2020. As of 2021 we are adapting our proprietary methodology to successfully predict weekly market sentiment.
I also run a boutique rating agency, Clout & Wolf Rating Agency Ltd., based in London which provides the following services: credit scoring, risk modelling of financial assets, deep due diligence to uncover corruption risk and fraud, and various API data services.
Prior to all this I worked as a lecturer at the Department of Economics, Zagreb School of Economics and Management (ZSEM) for four years, where I taught Political economy, Principles of Economics, International Economics and Public Finance. I was a research fellow for the Adam Smith Institute in London, and am member of the board at the Science and Society Synergy Institute. As of March 2020 I am also the chief economist and board member of Udruga Glas Poduzetnika (Voice of Entrepreneurs), a newly founded association of SMEs that has successfully lobbied the Croatian government in April 2020 for a stimulus package to save the economy from the impact of COVID-19. Finally, I am an expert member of the Parliamentary Committee on budget and finance in Croatia.
I hold a Master of Science degree from the London School of Economics, in the field of political economy. I received my BA in economics from the University of Zagreb, from which I graduated magna cum laude. During my studies I attended summer schools at the University of California at Berkeley and at Harvard University. I was a visiting scholar at the University of Cambridge, Clare College during the summer of 2013. I am happily married and a father of two boys and one baby girl.
Last but not least, I have a passion for cooking.
I hold a PhD in political economy from the University of Oxford, Pembroke College. My thesis looks at how the collusion between politicians and firms (an interaction I define as elite networks) affects the distribution of top incomes. I successfully defended the thesis in record time, after only two and a half years of study (from September 2016 to March 2019). During my time at Oxford I was a teaching assistant at the Oxford Q-step Center, teaching 1st year PhD course Causal Inference, and I held workshops in R. The thesis is currently being turned into a book, under review, titled "Elite Networks: The Political Economy of Inequality".
I am the co-founder and CEO of Oraclum Intelligence Systems Ltd, a UK-based data company that uses the power of social networks, big data, and machine learning to predict election outcomes, market movements, product demand, and consumer behaviour. My role is to run and oversee all our research projects, but also to conduct direct sales with clients, and deliver strategic decisions. The business experience perfectly complements an academic one, particularly when the two are interrelated as is the case with Oraclum. Our work includes doing survey experiments, data science modelling, and complex network and social network surveys which we have been conducting in over 15 countries (USA, UK, Western Europe, Eastern Europe, Southeast Asia), all done using social media. Our biggest success were the predictions of Brexit and Trump in 2016, and Biden in 2020. As of 2021 we are adapting our proprietary methodology to successfully predict weekly market sentiment.
I also run a boutique rating agency, Clout & Wolf Rating Agency Ltd., based in London which provides the following services: credit scoring, risk modelling of financial assets, deep due diligence to uncover corruption risk and fraud, and various API data services.
Prior to all this I worked as a lecturer at the Department of Economics, Zagreb School of Economics and Management (ZSEM) for four years, where I taught Political economy, Principles of Economics, International Economics and Public Finance. I was a research fellow for the Adam Smith Institute in London, and am member of the board at the Science and Society Synergy Institute. As of March 2020 I am also the chief economist and board member of Udruga Glas Poduzetnika (Voice of Entrepreneurs), a newly founded association of SMEs that has successfully lobbied the Croatian government in April 2020 for a stimulus package to save the economy from the impact of COVID-19. Finally, I am an expert member of the Parliamentary Committee on budget and finance in Croatia.
I hold a Master of Science degree from the London School of Economics, in the field of political economy. I received my BA in economics from the University of Zagreb, from which I graduated magna cum laude. During my studies I attended summer schools at the University of California at Berkeley and at Harvard University. I was a visiting scholar at the University of Cambridge, Clare College during the summer of 2013. I am happily married and a father of two boys and one baby girl.
Last but not least, I have a passion for cooking.
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Research interests
My interests range from political economy (public choice theory) to new institutional economics, behavioral economics, and economic history (how societies and their institutions evolve over time). In the vast field of political economy I am primarily focused on public choice theory and how interest group behavior (the logic of collective action) and the logic of political power shape economic outcomes. I believe that one cannot truly grasp the meaning of economic interactions and relationships without understanding the basic principles of political economy. In other words, you cannot understand economics if you don't understand politics. Which is why my research interests are interdisciplinary. I believe in the power of institutional design to shape human interaction. I believe that people react to incentives and are guided by both rational and emotional responses to such incentives. Clear institutional rules must be at the forefront of a democratic society. I believe in the principles of liberty, both economic and personal. I believe in the rule of law and private property rights. If such rules lack, incentives become perverse and a democracy quickly descends into cronyism, oligarchy and even totalitarianism. It is in the lack of coherent and clear institutional incentives coupled with the lack of political freedom (whilst maintaining a perception of free choice) that all modern problems arise from; from inequality to corporatism, from protectionism to an unsustainable welfare state, from inefficient governments to inefficient markets. I believe economics is a science when it applies a scientific, experimental method (randomized trial), but I also realize that many economists aren't scientists as they get preoccupied with aggregate variables and cherry-picking economic policy. In my opinion an economic policy should only be implemented if it is confirmed by rigorous scientific fact, not politicians' fiction. After all, one of the greatest lessons of economics, which many fail to understand is the following: “The art of economics consists in looking not merely at the immediate but at the longer effects of any act or policy; it consists in tracing the consequences of that policy not merely for one group but for all groups.” H.Hazlitt, 1946 It is through those lenses that I tend to think about economics and human interaction. I blog about economics and many of the issues mentioned above on a semi-regular basis. Access the blog here. My appearance on the most popular TV talk show in Croatia, talking about the COVID-induced recession:
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Oraclum Intelligence Systems LtdOraclum Intelligence Systems Ltd is a UK-based data science and polling company that uses the power of social networks, big data, and machine learning to predict election outcomes and uncover patterns of consumer behavior. We have successfully predicted both Brexit and Trump in 2016, and Biden in 2020. We are now engaged in predicting weekly market sentiment. Subscribe to our Substack newsletter for more. 
Read my text at the New Scientist on the new science of polling, or my LSE blog on how we correctly predicted a Trump victory (or click on the map above).
Explaining Oraclum's power of predictions
Recent public appearances
Interview on Macro & Inflation outlook for Good Soil Investment Management, February 2022, April 2022
My TEDx Talk (in Croatian), Jan 2021 Series of op-eds & interviews on the 2020 crisis and necessary policy reactions: Index.hr: March 2020, April 2020, April 2020, May 2020 Nedjeljom u 2, HRT: March 2020 Jutarnji: March 2020 ; 24sata: May 2020 Telegram: April 2020, July 2020 Project full budgetary transparency unveiled in: |
