My interests range from political economy (public choice theory) to new institutional economics, behavioral economics, and economic history (how societies and their institutions evolve over time). In the vast field of political economy I am primarily focused on public choice theory and how interest group behavior (the logic of collective action) and the logic of political power shape economic outcomes. I believe that one cannot truly grasp the meaning of economic interactions and relationships without understanding the basic principles of political economy. In other words, you cannot understand economics if you don't understand politics.
Which is why my research interests are interdisciplinary. I believe in the power of institutional design to shape human interaction. I believe that people react to incentives and are guided by both rational and emotional responses to such incentives. Clear institutional rules must be at the forefront of a democratic society. I believe in the principles of liberty, both economic and personal. I believe in the rule of law and private property rights. If such rules lack, incentives become perverse and a democracy quickly descends into cronyism, oligarchy and even totalitarianism. It is in the lack of coherent and clear institutional incentives coupled with the lack of political freedom (whilst maintaining a perception of free choice) that all modern problems arise from; from inequality to corporatism, from protectionism to an unsustainable welfare state, from inefficient governments to inefficient markets.
I believe economics is a science when it applies a scientific, experimental method (randomized trial), but I also realize that many economists aren't scientists as they get preoccupied with aggregate variables and cherry-picking economic policy. In my opinion an economic policy should only be implemented if it is confirmed by rigorous scientific fact, not politicians' fiction. After all, one of the greatest lessons of economics, which many fail to understand is the following: “The art of economics consists in looking not merely at the immediate but at the longer effects of any act or policy; it consists in tracing the consequences of that policy not merely for one group but for all groups.” H.Hazlitt, 1946
It is through those lenses that I tend to think about economics and human interaction.
I blog about economics and many of the issues mentioned above on a semi-regular basis. Access the blog here.
My appearance on the most popular TV talk show in Croatia, talking about the COVID-induced recession:
Oraclum Intelligence Systems Ltd is a UK-based data science and polling company that uses the power of social networks, big data, and machine learning to predict election outcomes and uncover patterns of consumer behavior. We have successfully predicted both Brexit and Trump in 2016, and Biden in 2020.
We are now engaged in predicting weekly market sentiment. Subscribe to our Substack newsletter for more.
Read my text at the New Scientist on the new science of polling, or my LSE blog on how we correctly predicted a Trump victory (or click on the map above).
Explaining Oraclum's power of predictions
Recent public appearances
Interview on Macro & Inflation outlook for Good Soil Investment Management, February 2022, April 2022
My TEDx Talk (in Croatian), Jan 2021
Series of op-eds & interviews on the 2020 crisis and necessary policy reactions:
Index.hr: March 2020, April 2020, April 2020, May 2020
Nedjeljom u 2, HRT: March 2020
Jutarnji: March 2020 ; 24sata: May 2020
Telegram: April 2020, July 2020
Project full budgetary transparency unveiled in: